Heuristics

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Heuristics are articulated or unarticulated rules of thumb used to make decisions when the full facts are not known or knowable in the time available. They are usually known within the CEO's inner circle. They also are typical means by which experts take decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

Name, history, and examples

Heuristics, from Greek εὑρίσκω, ...

Heuristic (adj., usually associated to "approach", "method", or "procedure")...

Examples:

• Business
  • Complexity assumption. If evidence support conflicting hypotheses that cannot be resolved within the limits of the available timeframe and resources, then assume it's complex [Dave Snowden, add reference]
  • Napkin test. Any framework or model that can’t be drawn on a table napkin from memory has little utility
• Military
  • Napoleon Bonaparte. March to the sound of the guns
  • US Marines. When the battlefield plan breaks down, capture the high ground, stay in touch, keep moving
• Other
  • Orwell's "six rules" for writing

Use in naturalizing sense-making

In the context of the Naturalising sense-making school of thought...

Related methods

• ASHEN
• Add methods...

Related cases and stories

Cases:

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Stories:

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Supporting artefacts

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Related concepts

• Bias
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References

Articles and books

• Dave Snowden, The ASHEN Model: an enabler of action (Part One of Basics of Organic Knowledge Management), Originally published in Knowledge Management, April 200 Vol 3 Issue 7 edited 2004

Blog posts

• Dave Snowden, Bias or heuristic?, Cognitive Edge Blog (August 30, 2019)
• Dave Snowden, The table napkin test, Cognitive Edge Blog (July 31, 2015)
• Dave Snowden, Heuristics needed not booklets, Cognitive Edge Blog (March 19, 2014)
• Michael Cheveldave, When guidelines & heuristics are better than strict policy, Cognitive Edge Blog (April 7, 2012)
• Dave Snowden, Italian Lakes: 5 The heuristics of finding a place to eat, Cognitive Edge Blog (July 28, 2011)
• Dave Snowden, Erroneous Brain Heuristics, Cognitive Edge Blog (January 14, 2009)

Videos

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